By Vitor Gaspar, Otmar Issing, Oreste Tristani, David Vestin
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Extra info for Imperfect Knowledge and Monetary Policy (The Stone Lectures in Economics)
In reality, however, the central bank has only, at best, a broadbrush idea of the various channels of the transmission mechanism, and it knows, at the same time, that the prevalent channel may change depending on circumstances. The result is that Milton Friedman’s assertion about the long and variable lags of the transmission mechanism remains valid. At the same time, economic agents have to take decisions in an equally uncertain environment. In this intricate territory, a strategy helps the central bank to dispel the uncertainty linked to its own actions.
For this reason, the communication policy represents an important complement to the strategy, since it helps to define it more precisely over time for the benefit of the public. Consistently with the different strategies adopted over time and across countries, different central banks have sometimes chosen to emphasize different particular pieces of information, or elements of their decision making, in their communication policies. Monetary targeting and inflation targeting, in particular, represent the most often discussed benchmarks of recent periods.
In the realm of monetary policy, the level of uncertainty stemming from the dynamics of expectations is mainly, and inversely, related to central bank credibility. The more credible a central bank, the more predictable its actions and, in turn, the reactions of the private sector. Conversely, a central bank with little credibility will find it more difficult to plan its own actions because of the uncertain response of economic agents, and it will end up producing further noise in the economic system.
Imperfect Knowledge and Monetary Policy (The Stone Lectures in Economics) by Vitor Gaspar, Otmar Issing, Oreste Tristani, David Vestin